As Western regulators tinker with capacity markets and ratepayers stew over indecipherable bills, Beijing is churning out record-breaking clean energy stats. But is China really leading the future—or just perfecting the art of looking like it? Meanwhile, PJM’s new price collar is being sold as stability—but smells a lot like interference. Welcome to GridBrief, where grid policy meets capital discipline and hype gets audited.

China's Clean Energy Stats Hit Records—But So Do the Questions

China just reported a record 951 TWh of clean electricity generation in Q1 2025, up 19% year-over-year. Solar spiked 48%, and wind surpassed hydro output for the first time. On paper, it’s a green energy juggernaut. But dig deeper and the picture gets fuzzier. Subsidies, opaque procurement processes, and centralized grid dispatch mean actual market responsiveness is minimal—and grid curtailments remain high in wind-heavy provinces.

The headline number? 39% clean power in China’s generation mix. But with fossil fuels still accounting for 58%, and total generation growing in absolute terms, emissions reductions are murky. More importantly for investors: centralized planning is not price discovery. Capacity buildouts without price signals lead to stranded assets, not scalable models. China’s dominance in manufacturing doesn’t guarantee financial performance in generation. As always: follow the capital, not the communiqués.

Poll: Americans Don’t Know What’s Driving Their Power Bills—And They’re Mad About It

Ipsos’ latest PowerLines survey finds that 62% of Americans say their electricity or gas bill is higher than a year ago and so much more…

• 80% feel powerless to control how much they’re charged for energy—across income, age, and political lines.

• Only 42% say they fully understand what drives their utility costs. Among 18–34-year-olds, 60% admit they don’t understand it at all.

• One in three Americans don’t know what kind of utility company services their home—rising to 43% among young adults and 46% among Black Americans.

• 59% say their state government does a poor job protecting consumers in utility regulation. Trust is low and cuts across party lines.

• Nearly half (47%) say rising utility bills are a bad sign for the economy, suggesting rate increases are bleeding into broader economic sentiment.

This isn’t just a consumer ed problem—it’s a warning to policymakers and utilities alike. Voters don’t know why prices are up, but they know they’re up—and they’re looking for someone to blame. Regulators that fail to clearly link market design to bill stability may soon find their models under siege. And utilities that bury rate hikes in opaque filings should expect populist pushback—especially when inflation is back in the headlines.

FERC Slaps Price Collar on PJM Auctions—Fix or Fiction?

PJM’s next two capacity auctions will operate under a federally approved “price collar,” capping prices at $325/MW-day and setting a floor at $175. FERC says it’s a temporary fix to buy time amid rising bills and retiring generation. But here’s the rub: this isn’t market reform, it’s price control.

The cap is down from a would-be $500 ceiling; the floor is up from zero. That’s not moderation—it’s compression. And it raises deeper questions: if capacity markets can’t be trusted to send the right price signals in crisis, are they markets at all? PJM says it’s reacting to rapid load growth, policy interference, and delayed generation queues. Fair enough. But this collar may also chill investment by signaling that high prices will be politically capped. A floor helps some generators, but the message is clear—price discovery ends where politics begins.

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Conversation Starters

• WSJ – Why Are Electricity Prices So High in Texas?
  When subsidies distort signals, reliability dies.
  Texas' bet on renewables is clashing with reality—dispatchable capacity can’t survive when forced to sit idle, and the bill just came due.

• FT – Altman Steps Down from Oklo Board Amid Power Talks
  AI needs gigawatts—fast.
  Sam Altman exits the board of a nuclear startup he funded to avoid conflict as OpenAI shops for firm power in a firm-less market.

• Wired – Finland May Bury Nuclear Waste, Permanently
  A solution 70 years late—but still better than nothing.
  Finland is on track to open the first true geological repository for spent fuel, in a moment of global reckoning for nuclear waste policy.

Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: Fluence Energy (FLNC)
As capacity markets buckle and energy arbitrage grows more complex, battery storage becomes the flex-tool of choice. Fluence is sitting at the intersection of grid instability and dispatchable software-defined storage. Their AI-driven platform, combined with physical assets in Europe and the U.S., gives them the edge in price-signal responsiveness—even when the market isn’t sending clear ones. With transmission queues snarled and renewables spiking midday volatility, Fluence is the rare tech-infrastructure hybrid positioned for what’s next, not what was.

Bad Bet: NRG Energy (NRG)
Yes, NRG just got 7,100 MW of coal capacity exempted from new mercury rules. But that doesn’t reverse the macro trends: coal is still uncompetitive, aging, and increasingly difficult to finance or staff. Regulatory relief may extend the timeline, but not the economics. With natural gas eating coal’s lunch and clean firm options rising, NRG’s legacy-heavy generation fleet looks less like a value play and more like a liability in slow motion.

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