We’re back after a brief hiatus and better than ever. The center of gravity just shifted. The Senate confirmed two Republicans to FERC, likely flipping the commission’s posture on markets, transmission cost allocation, and reliability rules right as AI-driven load keeps climbing. Globally, the new renewables outlook still shows a doubling by 2030—powered mostly by solar—but the U.S. track is revised sharply down on policy changes. And for the first time, renewables out-produced coal worldwide in 1H 2025. Net: expect tougher market rules for wind/solar at home while the rest of the world keeps building like mad.

Senate Confirms FERC Nominees, Creating GOP Majority

The Senate approved Laura Swett and David LaCerte, giving FERC a 3–2 Republican majority alongside Commissioner Lindsay See; Democrats are Chair David Rosner and Judy Chang. LaCerte’s term runs through June 2026; Swett’s through June 2030. FERC is operating during a federal shutdown but could drop to skeleton staffing if funds run out.

Why it matters for the grid: Expect movement on rules that privilege accredited, firm resources in capacity constructs and interconnection queues, a harder line on reliability (including gas deliverability), and closer scrutiny of state policies that shift costs. Watch the pending PJM colocated data center at power plants concept—GOP leadership could fast-track pathways for large new loads to anchor on-site generation and bypass congested transmission. Also watch whether Rosner keeps the gavel; a chair swap would accelerate this pivot.

IEA Renewables Outlook: Capacity Still Doubles by 2030, but U.S. Cut ~50%

The latest global outlook projects +4,600 GW of new renewable capacity by 2030—~80% solar PV—with wind nearly doubling despite supply chain and permitting headwinds. Hydropower growth leans on pumped storage; geothermal triples off a small base. But the forecast trims overall growth vs last year and slashes the U.S. 2025–2030 outlook by nearly half on policy shifts: earlier federal tax credit phaseouts, import restrictions, offshore leasing pauses, and tighter federal-land permitting for onshore wind/solar. China still accounts for ~60% of new capacity and remains ahead of its 2035 target.

Grid take: Variable renewables will push ~30% of global generation by 2030, with curtailment and negative prices rising where flexibility lags. The winning playbook is getting boring but urgent: faster transmission, firm-capacity procurement, long-duration storage, and demand-side flexibility (data centers, EVs, heat pumps) to soak midday solar and firm the evening ramp. Manufacturers’ margins (especially PV/wind ex-China) remain under pressure even as developer appetite holds—expect more bankruptcies alongside record installs.

Renewables Overtake Coal in 1H 2025

Ember finds renewables at 34.3% of global electricity vs coal at 33.1%—a first. China and India did most of the lifting; the U.S. and EU saw some coal upticks amid demand growth and grid stress. CO₂ nudged down as wind/solar exceeded demand growth.

Context: U.S. demand is rising ~3%/yr after decades of flat load—thanks to AI/data centers, industry, and climate-driven cooling—so even aggressive wind/solar additions are racing a moving target. If build rates wobble, legacy gas/coal run harder, eroding emissions gains. China’s scale advantage (PV/module costs down >90% over decades) keeps hardware cheap; the U.S. outlook hinges less on LCOE and more on permitting, interconnection, and firming.

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Conversation Starters

• Reuters – Spain’s grid operator warns of new voltage swings after April’s historic blackout — REE is flagging rapid voltage fluctuations capable of tripping load and generation; regulators are prepping urgent, provisional stability measures.

• Axios – Nuclear startups eye side profits (e.g., cancer-drug isotopes) to fund reactors — TerraPower’s medical-isotope line could offset first-of-a-kind reactor costs as advanced fission timelines slip (Wyoming demo now ~2030).

Today’s Chart

Natural gas still dwarfs every other source of generation in America — more than 50 million MWh, over double nuclear and nearly five times coal’s output. Wind and solar together still make up less than gas alone, even as renewables globally just overtook coal for the first time.

It’s a good reminder that while the world’s energy transition is accelerating, the U.S. grid still leans hard on dispatchable fuel. Gas isn’t just the bridge… it’s still the backbone.

Good Bet

Vistra (VST) — A FERC tilt toward firm capacity + surging peak demand favors portfolios with dispatchable gas, growing nuclear access, and big-block storage in markets like ERCOT/PJM. Vistra’s integrated generation/retail + batteries are positioned to monetize scarcity and flexibility.

Bad Bet

Merchant wind/solar without firming in congested ISOs — With interconnection delays, curtailment, and potential market rule shifts that privilege accredited capacity, pure-play, unfirmed projects face basis risk and revenue volatility—especially where negative pricing and deliverability constraints are rising.

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