Today’s edition covers the Senate’s softened but still disruptive IRA rewrite, New York’s about-face on nuclear power, and a quiet validation of battery storage from NERC’s annual reliability report. Three different energy futures are forming—and only one is grounded in physics.

LNG Grows Faster Than Ever—but Supply Risks Loom After 2026

Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade hit an all-time high of 401 million tonnes in 2024, according to the IGU’s new World LNG Report. The U.S. led the charge with 86.1 million tonnes exported—more than 21% of global supply—while China and India drove demand.

But the report sounds a clear warning: the current boom peaks in 2026, with few new projects in the pipeline after that. Only one final investment decision (FID) was made in 2023—down from 11 in 2022—raising the risk of a tight market by 2028.

Buyers are also shifting back to long-term contracts—now 70% of the market—reducing short-term flexibility and increasing exposure to geopolitical chokepoints like the Suez Canal and Strait of Hormuz.

Europe’s replacement of Russian gas with U.S. and Qatari LNG has worked—for now. But without a new wave of FIDs, global supply could tighten just as demand from Asia accelerates. The LNG boom is real. So is the bust risk.

Senate Scales Back IRA Cuts—but Wind and Solar Still Take a Hit

The Senate Finance Committee released its version of the budget bill this week, dialing back some of the House's most aggressive cuts to the Inflation Reduction Act. But for wind and solar developers, the reprieve may be too little, too late.

The good news: the Senate rejected the House’s 60-day construction deadline, retained transferability for key credits, and preserved 45Q (carbon capture) and 45X (advanced manufacturing) through 2033. The bad news: wind and solar are still facing a brutal timeline.

Projects breaking ground in 2026 will only receive 60% of the 45Y/48E credit value. By 2027? Just 20%. After that, nothing.

That’s devastating for large-scale projects still stuck in interconnection queues or mid-permitting—projects unlikely to begin construction until 2027 or 2028. Residential solar also got hit, with the 25D credit scheduled to phase out just 180 days after the budget is signed into law.

The Senate’s shift from a "placed in service" to "commence construction" standard offers some flexibility, and its foreign entity restrictions appear more navigable than the House version. Still, uncertainty reigns—and manufacturers are openly questioning whether to keep U.S. operations alive.

As Advanced Energy United's Harry Godfrey put it: “This effectively kills those projects.”

New York to Build New Nuclear Plant Amid Grid Crunch

In a remarkable policy reversal, Governor Kathy Hochul announced plans to build a new nuclear power plant in upstate New York—the first since Indian Point was shuttered in 2021 under her predecessor.

The plant is expected to power up to 1 million homes. Hochul says it’s necessary to avoid the blackouts plaguing states that overcommitted to renewables and gas. But details are scarce: no site, no budget, no timeline. Just an urgent tone—and a political pivot.

“We’re not building your grandparents’ nuclear plant,” she quipped, distancing the announcement from the ghost of Indian Point. But some lawmakers and environmental groups aren't convinced. State Sen. Liz Krueger questioned whether nuclear is the most cost-effective clean energy investment, while others raised concerns about waste and permitting.

Still, momentum is on Hochul’s side. A growing list of states—Illinois, Indiana, Montana, Texas—are actively courting SMRs. The New York Power Authority will manage the project, and the state has already begun scouting “host communities.” Hochul says interest is high: “Everybody’s raising their hand right now.”

Whether this effort succeeds where Indian Point failed will depend less on rhetoric and more on engineering—and whether the NRC, under pressure from the Trump administration, actually delivers a streamlined licensing process.

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Conversation Starters

• Barron’s – Nuclear firm Holtec plans IPO, revival of Michigan plant
  Holtec is going public and restoring the shuttered Palisades plant—plus it plans to build 10–20 SMRs over the next decade. The IPO could be the biggest nuclear market debut in years.

• Dallas Express – The anti-wind backlash goes mainstream
  A forceful op-ed argues that wind’s environmental and economic costs are “performance theater,” not policy. It’s worth noting: counties in Ohio and Indiana are now issuing decade-long wind moratoriums.

• BBC – How China made EVs normal
  With nearly half of all cars sold in China now electric, affordability—not climate—has driven the transition. State subsidies, vertical integration, and charging infrastructure built at scale did the heavy lifting.

Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: Battery Developers in Texas
With the ERCOT grid already leaning on batteries for primary frequency regulation, and NERC’s full-throated endorsement of BESS, expect more funding, more favorable policy, and a rush to build. Texas is leading the curve—again.

Bad Bet: Long-Tail Solar Projects
Wind and solar projects slated to begin construction after 2026 are effectively shut out of full IRA credit access. The Senate gave a little ground—but not enough runway for developers stuck in queue purgatory. Delay is death.

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