As America’s power appetite explodes, the gap between planning and reality is starting to show. Consumer groups are warning of flawed load forecasts, FERC is getting a surprise new chair, and utilities still can’t get transformers fast enough to build the infrastructure we need. This is GridBrief: where data centers, regulation, and the laws of physics collide.

Consumer Groups Warn FERC: Fix Load Forecasting or Face Chaos

A coalition of electricity-intensive industries is urging the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) to overhaul how load forecasts are done—and who gets to see them.

• Led by the Electricity Customer Alliance, the group argues that today's demand projections are opaque, inconsistent, and woefully out of step with AI-driven growth.

• They cite a recent ICF report projecting a 25% rise in U.S. electricity demand by 2030 and 78% by 2050.

• That means the grid needs to add 80 GW annually through 2045—twice the current pace.

Why it matters:
Load forecasts drive everything: power prices, infrastructure investment, and resource adequacy planning. When they're wrong, we get either outages or stranded costs—and right now, no one seems confident they’re right.

The coalition wants FERC to create an independent forum or elevate forecasting issues within its collaborative with state regulators. Translation: get everyone in the same room before this turns into a multibillion-dollar guessing game.

White House Replaces FERC Chair With Quietly Connected Energy Insider

In a move that surprised even the outgoing chair, the White House announced it will replace FERC Chairman Mark Christie with energy attorney Laura Swett, formerly of Vinson & Elkins.

• Swett has deep experience at FERC and represented major power and pipeline firms, including PJM transmission owners.

• If confirmed, FERC would return to a 2-2 partisan split. In the interim, Republican Lindsay See is likely to serve as chair.

The subtext:
This isn’t just a personnel change. It’s part of a broader White House strategy to exert tighter control over FERC—particularly as the agency faces pressure to greenlight gas projects, retain aging power plants, and respond to surging AI-era demand.

GridBrief Context:
The replacement of Christie—who was widely seen as a market defender—could tip FERC toward more interventionist policies, especially if paired with reforms that give DOE more direct power over capacity retention. Add this to the Meta–Constellation nuclear deal, and a pattern emerges: the federal government is shifting from neutral grid referee to active market participant.

Gridlock at the Substation: Transformer Shortages Threaten Expansion

Despite some progress in reshoring, America’s electrical hardware supply chain is still underwater. Transformers, switchgear, and other grid components remain on backorder for years, not months.

• High-voltage transformers: 3-year wait

• Distribution transformers: 12+ months

• Domestic content? Still mostly imported (80% for HV units)

While Siemens, PTT, MGM, and others are expanding domestic capacity, the collapse of Cleveland-Cliffs’ West Virginia project underscores the market’s volatility. The supply chain still relies heavily on imports from Mexico, China, and South Korea—with critical materials like grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) produced almost entirely offshore.

Why this matters:
Data center demand is skyrocketing. Texas is trying to match Northern Virginia’s 35-year buildout in five years. Without the gear to power them, we’re heading for a hard stop.

Bright spot:
The National Electrical Manufacturers Association is standardizing specs to help projects qualify for federal incentives under domestic content rules. But reshoring transformer production still faces a long, costly road—and utilities aren’t sure the load growth will justify the bet.

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Conversation Starters

• CBS News – “Ice Batteries Cool Manhattan Skyscrapers”
  Eleven Madison Park’s HVAC system now freezes water at night to lower daytime grid strain. With 20% of global power going to A/C, these kinds of “load shift” solutions may be the real unsung heroes of grid stability.

• NYT – “Will Trump’s Megabill Raise Your Power Bill?”
  Analysts warn that repealing clean energy tax credits could add $400/year to the average electric bill. The GOP’s effort to kill Biden-era climate incentives may be popular with fossil producers—but it's going to hit ratepayers hard.

• Manhattan Contrarian – “NY Stands Alone on Climate”
  As the federal government slashes climate regulations and funding, New York is doubling down on mandates—with no clear plan for implementation. Offshore wind is stalled, transmission is lagging, and yet $1 billion more is being thrown at electrification goals that may now be unreachable.

Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: American-made switchgear
As tariffs rise and transformer imports stall in ports, domestic producers of low- and medium-voltage components are gaining serious market share. Firms like Mission Critical Group, MGM, and VanTran are now indispensable to U.S. data center growth.

Bad Bet: Forecasting status quo
FERC can’t afford to stay hands-off on load predictions. Too much is riding on accurate modeling. Utilities, manufacturers, and data center developers are demanding clarity. If FERC punts again, expect lawsuits—or worse, rolling blackouts blamed on poor planning.

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