Welcome to Grid Brief! Here’s what we’re looking at today: a new report on PJM’s future output and unrest in Nigeria.

PJM May Need to Double Output by 2040

A new study from Grid Strategies and David Gardiner and Associates, which was first reported by E&E News, projects that PJM, the country’s largest RTO, could face power shortages in the future.

Under the report’s “Expected scenario” PJM will need to add 623 terawatt-hours of annual energy generation by 2040 to meet consumer demand—equivalent to PJM’s generation in 2023 alone. Under the “High scenario” PJM will need to nearly double current generation and add 798 TWh to the grid by 2040.

The authors note, “The increase is driven by higher electrification estimates leading to larger load growth and higher amounts of generation retirements due to shorter plant lifespan assumptions. In both scenarios we find states’ RPS laws, large energy buyers’ commitments, and utilities’ goals all increase demand for new clean energy generation.”

Nigeria’s Unions Shut Down National Grid

On Monday Nigeria’s two largest unions—the Nigeria Labour Congress and the Trade Union Congress—began a strike, shutting down the country’s grid and airports, and blocking the gates to parliament.

As The Guardian reports, “The Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN) said union members drove away operators at the country’s power control rooms and shut down at least six substations, which eventually shut the national grid at 2.19am.”

The unions declared an indefinite strike over the government’s failure to raise the minimum wage from 30,000 naira ($20) per month to nearly 500,000 naira ($336). Since President Bola Tinubu took office in May 2023, Africa’s most populous country has seen inflation reach a nearly 30-year high.

As of 2021, Nigeria’s electricity mix was primarily reliant on natural gas (77.8%) and hydropower (22%), per the IEA.

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