The power sector keeps running into the same problem from different angles: demand is rising faster than the system can comfortably absorb, and every proposed solution comes with its own bottleneck. In PJM, that means a one-time procurement to pull new capacity onto the system faster. In Washington, it means keeping one eye on long-shot technologies like fusion while trying to hold the current system together. In the background, cyber threats and equipment shortages are reminding everyone that reliability is no longer just about having enough megawatts on paper. It is about whether they can be built, protected, and delivered on time.
The Lede
RTO CAPACITY
PJM Tries to Pull 14.9 GW Forward
PJM is proposing a one-time procurement of 14.9 GW of new capacity to get ahead of projected shortfalls driven largely by data centers and broader load growth. The structure starts with bilateral deals between large loads and generators, with PJM acting as a matchmaker. If that falls short, PJM steps in with a centralized procurement to fill the gap.
The backdrop is stark. PJM is staring at a potential 50–60 GW capacity gap over the next decade. This effort is meant to accelerate projects that would otherwise get stuck in interconnection queues, permitting delays, or long construction cycles.
Phase 1: bilateral contracting (more flexibility, tailored risk-sharing)
Phase 2: centralized procurement (backstop if needed)
Target in-service: June 2031
Expect pushback. States and utilities are already signaling concern about over-procurement and cost exposure to ratepayers.
Why it matters - This is PJM acknowledging that the normal market timeline is too slow for the load that’s coming.
Grid Take - This is a market trying to stay a market while acting like a planner. When supply can’t respond quickly enough to price signals, the system starts layering in coordination. The more often that happens, the harder it becomes to separate “market outcomes” from managed ones.
Things to Read
C3 News – A sharp argument that nuclear’s real problem is economics, not reactor size. Worth it for anyone still assuming SMRs solve the equation on their own.
Ember – The “twin fossil shock” reframes energy volatility beyond oil. Useful for understanding how gas and electricity are now central to macro risk.
Vox – A clean breakdown of how EVs and batteries can act as grid assets. Not hype, but a helpful explanation of where flexibility could actually come from.
Latitude Media – Gas is no longer a “bridge.” It’s being treated as core infrastructure by hyperscalers. This piece captures that shift well.
Wood Mackenzie – A grounded look at whether fusion is nearing a real inflection point or just another cycle of optimism.
Major Stories
NUCLEAR
Fusion Gets Another Federal Push
The federal government is leaning further into fusion through a new partnership between Inertia Enterprises and Lawrence Livermore National Lab. The model is becoming consistent: public R&D meets venture-backed startups trying to commercialize fusion.
Inertia raised $450 million earlier this year, joining a growing pool of private capital chasing what is still a very uncertain technology. The 2022 Livermore breakthrough proved net energy gain in a lab setting, but sustained, commercial fusion remains a long way off. Still, momentum is building:
Federal R&D infrastructure increasingly paired with private developers
Billions in private capital flowing into U.S.-based fusion startups
Policy interest rising alongside long-term demand projections
Why it matters - Even as the grid scrambles for near-term capacity, capital is still chasing technologies that could reshape the system decades out.
Grid Take - Fusion is not about solving 2030. It’s about not being stuck in 2040. In a system that is already short on firm capacity, even a small chance of a breakthrough starts to look worth funding.
GRID HACKERS
Cyber Threats Move Back to the Foreground
Grid operators are on heightened alert after warnings that Iran-linked hackers have targeted programmable logic controllers across U.S. infrastructure. These systems are deeply embedded in grid operations, controlling substations, generation, and distributed resources.
This isn’t theoretical. Federal agencies say disruptions have already occurred across multiple sectors. Utilities are treating it as familiar territory, but the scale and coordination are raising the temperature. Key reality check:
PLCs are everywhere across the grid
Many run on legacy systems not designed for modern threats
Disruption at this level can impact both generation and distribution
Why it matters - Reliability is no longer just about having enough capacity. It’s about whether the system can be trusted to operate as intended.
Grid Take - The grid is being tightened by demand and tested by digital risk at the same time. As systems become more automated and interconnected, the cost of disruption rises. Reliability is now a hardware and software problem simultaneously.
FOSSIL FUELS
EPA Eases Coal Ash Rules
The EPA is proposing new “flexibilities” in coal ash regulations, allowing more site-specific approaches to cleanup and monitoring. The move would ease compliance requirements that have been in place, in various forms, since 2015.
There are roughly 775 coal ash sites across the country, many tied to legacy coal plants. The proposal would:
Allow more discretion in cleanup standards and monitoring
Ease certain closure and remediation requirements
Reduce compliance burden for operators
Industry groups support the move as a way to keep costs down and maintain reliability. Environmental groups argue it risks delaying cleanup of hazardous waste linked to groundwater contamination.
Why it matters - This is part of a broader shift toward keeping existing generation online longer as new capacity struggles to come online.
Grid Take - When replacement capacity is slow and expensive, legacy assets gain value. But easing constraints doesn’t eliminate costs, it moves them. Often into longer-term risks that are harder to see and harder to price today.
SUPPLY CHAIN
Gas Turbine Market Hits a Hard Constraint
The biggest constraint on new gas generation may not be policy. It’s manufacturing. Gas turbine prices are projected to hit $600/kW by 2027, up 195% since 2019, as demand overwhelms supply. Global orders reached 110 GW last year, while manufacturing capacity sits closer to 60–70 GW.
Lead times are now stretching to six years, and order books are effectively sold out through 2027.
Turbines = 20–30% of combined cycle project costs
Procurement timing now dictates project viability
Data center demand is a major driver of the surge
Manufacturers are ramping up, but bottlenecks remain in specialized labor and key components.
Why it matters - You can’t build what you can’t buy. Equipment availability is now a gating factor for capacity expansion.
Grid Take - The debate over gas used to be about policy and emissions. Now it’s about supply chains. The winners in this cycle won’t just be the ones with the best economics, but the ones who secured equipment early enough to matter.
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Quick Signals
PJM breaks the glass — A one-time 14.9 GW procurement signals urgency. When the grid operator starts matchmaking deals, timelines have officially become the constraint.
Capacity gap gets real — PJM projecting 50–60 GW shortfall over the next decade. That’s no longer a planning exercise, that’s a build problem.
Bilateral > centralized (for now) — PJM leaning on private contracting first, but keeping a centralized backstop ready. Market-first, planner-second.
Fusion money keeps flowing — Another $450M into a young player. Still long-dated, but capital is clustering around the upside scenario.
Public + private R&D converge — DOE increasingly pairing national labs with startups. Fusion moving from pure science toward early commercialization attempts.
Cyber risk escalates quietly — Iran-linked actors targeting grid control systems. PLCs are the soft underbelly and they’re everywhere.
Legacy systems = vulnerability — Much of the grid still runs on older control tech. Reliability now depends on systems that weren’t built for this threat environment.
Coal gets regulatory breathing room — EPA proposing more flexibility on coal ash rules. Another signal that keeping existing capacity online matters right now.
Gas turbine market breaks — Prices up ~195% since 2019, lead times at 6 years, and supply sold out through 2027. This is the bottleneck.
Procurement beats economics — Gas projects now hinge on securing turbines, not fuel spreads. If you didn’t order early, you’re late.
Data centers reshape everything — Driving nearly 100% growth in power demand this decade. Not just a load story, a supply chain story too.
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