Welcome to Grid Brief! Here’s what we’re looking at today: the Russian uranium problem, the US commits to enormous fee reductions for wind and solar on federal lands, the Texas grid braces for a heatwave, and more.

The Russian Uranium Problem

Can the US wean itself off of Russian uranium? Maybe. But it will be a struggle. Last year, Russia remained America’s top uranium supplier.

“Russia supplied almost a quarter of the enriched uranium used to fuel America’s fleet of more than 90 commercial reactors,” reports Bloomberg. “That compares with 28% in 2021, according to the latest Energy Department data.”

So far, the US has sunk billions into cultivating its own uranium supply and supply chains, but to no avail. It wasn’t always this way. Forty years ago, the US was self-sufficient when it came to its uranium supply.

“Today, it isn’t producing any uranium oxide. Over the past four decades or so, the U.S. went from being the world’s biggest exporter of nuclear fuel to its biggest importer,” reports Robert Bryce. (For the history of how this changed, see Matt Wald’s recent pieces here and here).

“And much of that fuel (about 14%) is coming from Russia, the world’s biggest enricher of uranium. About 46% of the world’s enrichment capacity is controlled by Russia,” Bryce continues.

Republicans in the House have launched a bill to lock down $2.4 billion to cultivate a domestic uranium enrichment industry, though the fruits of such efforts would take at least a decade to ripen—if at all. The US currently has no sufficient enrichment capacity. It would be starting from zero or close to it.

Meanwhile, the White House is considering hitting Rosatom, the Russian nuclear company, with sanctions over the Ukraine invasion, endangering America’s uranium supply with no alternatives on the horizon.

US Fee Reductions for Wind and Solar on Federal Land

The US Department of the Interior’s Bureau of Land Management will formalize its plan to slash fees for wind and solar development on federal land by 80%. This marks a 30% cut from last year’s 50% fee reduction.

“President Joe Biden wants to decarbonize the U.S. electricity sector by 2035, a goal that will require rapid deployment of large amounts of wind and solar energy. The BLM manages one in every 10 acres of land in the United States and Interior has a congressional mandate to permit 25 gigawatts (GW) of renewable energy on federal lands by 2025,” reports Reuters.

The fee reductions are to be incorporated into the regulatory structure, making them more resilient to reversal.

The BLM is currently working through 74 applications for renewable energy, geothermal energy, and transmission lines with the potential to add 37 GW of nameplate capacity to the grid. Nameplate capacity (what it says on the tin) does not reflect the amount these energy sources will produce.

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ERCOT Braces for Heatwave

Texas is staring down the barrel of a harsh weather forecast: triple digit weather. Can the Texas grid handle it?

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas says the state could see peak demand as high as 82,275 MW on Wednesday, kicking off the first day of summer with a sweaty bang. That would beat last July’s record, which was 80,148 MW.

Like last year, ERCOT will be caught without some of its coal and gas on hand. Spring is usually a shoulder season during which many plants schedule maintenance. But that window has been shrinking as spring/early summer heat waves have become more regular.

But ERCOT is working on resolving its reliability issues.

“ERCOT’s reliability standard modeling has centered on a 2026 test year using a resource portfolio based on an assessment of the system’s anticipated capacity, demand and reserves. The model includes existing and anticipated new generation, limits on the effective load carrying capabilities of wind, solar and battery resources, and the retirement of some thermal generation,” reports Utility Dive. “A reserve margin of 18.46% would result in a 1-in-10 standard, to ensure load shedding occurs only once in a decade, according ERCOT’s presentation. ERCOT does not currently have a reliability standard, but heads into this summer expecting a reserve margin of 23.2%.”

Conversation Starters

• Iraq wants more gas. “Iraq’s Oil Ministry is stepping up its efforts to boost gas production capacity, launching yet another new contract licensing round this year that is focused on 11 new gas blocks,” reports Iraq Oil Report. “The ministry's June 18 announcement of the sixth bid round builds further on momentum from its February signing of six contracts — including four gas blocks — that had originally been awarded in the fifth bid round in 2018. The ministry followed up in May by announcing a ‘five-plus’ round for 13 oil and gas blocks, including some that had been offered but not awarded in the fifth round.”

• China pushes ahead in nuclear development. “The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics (SINAP) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been granted an operating licence for the experimental TMSR-LF1 thorium-powered molten-salt reactor, construction of which started in Wuwei city, Gansu province, in September 2018,” reports World Nuclear News. “The TMSR-LF1 will use fuel enriched to under 20% U-235, have a thorium inventory of about 50 kg and conversion ratio of about 0.1. A fertile blanket of lithium-beryllium fluoride (FLiBe) with 99.95% Li-7 will be used, and fuel as UF4. If the TMSR-LF1 proves successful, China plans to build a reactor with a capacity of 373 MWt by 2030.”

• The gavel came down on Enbridge. “A U.S. judge has ordered Canadian energy company Enbridge to shutter portions of an oil pipeline that runs through tribal land in Wisconsin within three years and to pay the tribe nearly $5.2 million for trespassing plus a portion of its profits until the shutdown is completed,” reports Reuters. “U.S. District Judge William Conley issued the order on Friday in Madison. The judge's action came just over a month after the Bad River Band told him an immediate shutdown was needed following heavy spring rains that eroded a riverbank protecting the pipe. The pipeline carries 540,000 barrels of oil per day from Canada through the Great Lakes region. An Enbridge spokesperson said on Saturday the company plans to appeal the judge's order.”

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