The energy transition is colliding with political reality. Senate Republicans escalate their war on renewables with an aggressive new tax plan, even as utilities scramble to protect project timelines. Meanwhile, Google makes a headline-grabbing bet on fusion power to meet its rising AI-driven energy needs. This GridBrief tracks the shifting currents—from Capitol Hill to the cutting edge of plasma physics.

Senate GOP Shocks Renewables with Tax Proposal

After weeks of signaling moderation, Senate Republicans flipped over the weekend, advancing a budget bill that not only kills key IRA tax credits for wind and solar but imposes a punitive excise tax on new renewable projects.

The bill eliminates 45Y and 48E clean energy credits after 2027 and slaps penalties on projects that cannot prove complete independence from foreign adversaries like China. Also axed are credits for EVs, residential solar, and batteries, with sunset dates as soon as this fall.

Former Trump adviser Elon Musk called the bill "insane and destructive," saying it "gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future."

While trade groups like the American Clean Power Association and Solar Energy Industries Association warned the bill would raise power prices and kill manufacturing jobs, Senate leaders moved ahead, pushing for a final vote by July 4. Two Republicans defected: Rand Paul and Thom Tillis. President Trump vowed retaliation, attacking Tillis on Truth Social. Tillis has since announced he won’t seek reelection.

If passed in its current form, the bill could wipe out hundreds of billions in planned investment in clean energy.

Utilities Rally Behind 'Start of Construction' Tax Credit Standard

Amid Senate budget chaos, 18 trade associations and energy industry groups issued a rare joint statement backing one feature of the Senate Finance Committee version: the more generous "start of construction" requirement for clean energy tax credits.

The House’s version of the bill would have shifted eligibility to a stricter "placed in service" standard, which utilities argue would delay or cancel projects mid-stream. The Senate version preserves tax credit eligibility for wind and solar projects breaking ground by 2028, though it still imposes step-downs in value after 2025.

“Practical, commonsense provisions, like tying credits to the start of construction, provide a runway to finish projects and put much-needed electrons onto the grid,” said NextEra CEO John Ketchum. The groups say the change helps with bankability, financing, and permitting timelines that can span years.

Despite this partial win, rooftop solar developers remain under pressure, with residential tax credits still on track to expire by year’s end.

Google Signs Fusion Power Deal with Gates-Backed Startup

In a historic move, Google has signed a commercial fusion energy purchase agreement with Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), a Bill Gates-backed MIT spinout.

Google will buy 200 MW from CFS’s first commercial plant in Virginia—enough to power 75,000 homes. This is the largest known commercial fusion power deal to date.

The deal signals that fusion’s long-promised future may finally be materializing. CFS aims to begin commercial operations in the 2030s using high-temperature superconducting magnets in its ARC reactor design.

Google, which saw its emissions rise 11% last year due to surging AI-driven power demand, says the deal is part of a broader effort to reach net zero by 2030. The company also reported that while it signed 8 GW of clean energy deals last year, its total emissions are now 51% higher than in 2019.

Fusion remains unproven at scale, but CFS CEO Bob Mumgaard called the agreement “a pretty big signal to the market that fusion’s coming.”

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Conversation Starters

• OilPrice.com: Israel-Iran Conflict Boosts CoalRising LNG prices due to Middle East tensions have driven Japan’s coal imports to a four-month high. Despite long-term decarbonization goals, coal is now 13% cheaper per MMBtu than LNG in Asia.

• The Guardian: Google's Emissions Up 51% Since 2019Despite massive clean energy purchases, Google’s emissions keep climbing due to AI-related datacenter demand. The company warns that slow deployment of SMRs and transmission bottlenecks are putting its net-zero goals at risk.

• DW.com: Germany’s Nuclear Rift WidensGermany’s economy and environment ministers are clashing as nuclear-using EU countries forge stronger alliances. While the economy minister attended a pro-nuclear summit, her SPD counterpart doubled down on the phaseout.

Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: Fusion Licensing Firms
With Google and CFS signaling commercial fusion by 2035, licensing firms that navigate NRC approvals for advanced nuclear could see major upside. Watch for demand in safety modeling, plant permitting, and materials certification.

Bad Bet: U.S. Residential Solar Installers
With the 25D tax credit set to vanish by year-end and rising costs from Senate proposals, companies like Sunrun and Sunnova face margin compression and slumping demand just as financing tightens.

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