President Trump’s State of the Union address made one thing clear: his administration is doubling down on energy dominance, deregulation, and tariffs. Today’s GridBrief skips the usual rundown and instead delivers three key takeaways from Trump’s speech that could shape the energy landscape for years to come.

Important Energy Takeaways from the State of the Union Address

The President’s address touched on a wide range of energy policies, from fossil fuels and permitting reform to tariffs on electricity imports. Here’s what matters for the grid, energy markets, and the future of U.S. energy policy.

1. "Drill, Baby, Drill" is Now Policy

"We have more liquid gold under our feet than any nation on Earth, and now I fully authorized the most talented team ever assembled to go and get it. It’s called: Drill, baby, drill."

With that line, Trump officially declared a national energy emergency, clearing the way for aggressive oil and gas expansion. His administration has already lifted the Biden-era pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, approved new offshore drilling leases, and rolled back EPA regulations limiting fossil fuel production.

This approach signals a return to low-cost, high-volume extraction, a move that could put downward pressure on global oil and gas prices. But it also creates a long-term risk for domestic producers: surging supply could lead to price crashes, similar to the 2014 and 2020 oil price collapses that crippled U.S. shale producers. The U.S. is now the world's largest net exporter of LNG, meaning that any geopolitical shifts—such as European nations moving toward nuclear and renewables—could leave American producers scrambling for new buyers.

2. Tariffs on Energy Imports Could Drive Up Prices

"They rely on us, and we will not be taken advantage of any longer. The days of America getting ripped off on trade are over.”

Trump reaffirmed his commitment to tariffs on foreign goods, including a 10% duty on Canadian electricity. This could have an immediate impact on New England and New York, where up to 20% of electricity comes from Canadian hydropower. Grid operators in these regions have already filed with FERC, unsure whether they’ll need to collect and remit duties on imported power.

A tariff-driven price increase on Canadian energy could hit consumers hard, especially in states that rely on imports to meet winter peak demand. But the flip side is that domestic natural gas and nuclear providers could benefit, as their power suddenly becomes more competitive against pricier Canadian imports.

If these tariffs hold, expect higher electricity prices in the Northeast, renewed calls for domestic nuclear investment, and increased political pressure to develop more in-region generation assets.

3. The War on Permitting is in Full Swing

"We will build American energy—fast. I am ordering an immediate overhaul of permitting regulations that have strangled our infrastructure and energy projects."

Trump’s pledge to slash permitting delays could be the most significant shift for energy infrastructure since the early 2000s. He vowed to eliminate at least 10 regulations for every new one enacted, and specifically called for an acceleration of pipelines, transmission lines, and power plants.

This move could fast-track stalled LNG terminals, oil refineries, and gas pipelines—particularly the long-delayed Alaska natural gas pipeline Trump championed in his speech. The transmission sector also stands to gain, as projects like PJM’s $6.7 billion transmission upgrade plan could move forward faster under a streamlined approval process.

But there’s a catch: renewables and nuclear projects also depend on permitting reform. If the administration favors fossil fuel development while maintaining bureaucratic slowdowns for wind, solar, and nuclear, it could create bottlenecks that leave parts of the country struggling with grid reliability issues.

Trump’s energy plan is a full reversal of the last administration's policies, emphasizing fossil fuel expansion, trade protectionism, and permitting reform. While it promises lower costs and energy independence, it also raises questions about price volatility, energy grid stability, and long-term planning.

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Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: Arch Resources Inc. (ARCH)
With Trump declaring a national energy emergency and emphasizing coal and fossil fuel expansion, Arch Resources, one of the largest U.S. metallurgical and thermal coal producers, is well-positioned for a major rebound. If power producers lean back into coal due to higher natural gas and electricity prices from tariffs, Arch could see higher demand and better margins—especially as global coal exports remain strong.

Bad Bet: Enphase Energy (ENPH)
Trump’s agenda is hostile to solar subsidies, and he’s pushing for the rollback of clean energy tax credits. Enphase, a leading manufacturer of solar inverters, relies heavily on federal incentives and state-level mandates for residential solar installations. With Trump reversing Biden-era EV and solar incentives, residential solar could slow significantly, putting pressure on Enphase’s growth trajectory.

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