The energy and trade landscape is shifting fast. President Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford narrowly avoided a full-blown trade war over electricity exports and steel tariffs. Meanwhile, a new Harvard Law report exposes how utilities may be offloading the costs of data centers onto everyday ratepayers—just as Big Tech doubles down on nuclear power to fuel AI-driven energy demand.

Today’s GridBrief breaks down these key stories, plus a nuclear stock surge, a shifting utility bond market, and why betting against nuclear might be a mistake—again.

Trump, Canada Back Down from Escalating Trade War

President Trump and Ontario Premier Doug Ford have both stepped away from an escalating trade war after Ontario agreed to suspend its 25% surcharge on electricity exports to U.S. states. In return, Trump scrapped his planned 50% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum, though a 25% tariff will still take effect at midnight. The standoff rattled markets, sending the Dow down 478 points before rebounding on news that officials from both sides will meet Thursday to renegotiate trade terms under the USMCA.

The tariff fight reveals deep economic tensions between the U.S. and Canada, particularly in energy and manufacturing. Ontario’s attempt to use electricity exports as leverage infuriated the White House, with Trump threatening to declare a national electricity emergency if Canada went through with cutting off supply. The White House is also considering higher tariffs on Canadian cars and dairy products, a move that could devastate Canada’s auto industry while driving up U.S. consumer prices.

Harvard Report: Utilities May Be Subsidizing Data Centers

A new Harvard Law report warns that utilities may be shifting the cost of new data centers onto residential and small business ratepayers. As companies like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft expand their data center footprints, utilities are cutting special energy deals that often lack transparency and could inflate electricity rates for everyday consumers.

The report highlights how utilities like AEP, Dominion Energy, and FirstEnergy are signing opaque contracts with Big Tech, leading to unfair cost distribution. Regulators are urged to increase oversight and force utilities to disclose how these contracts impact the grid—especially as AI-driven energy demand skyrockets. Without reform, everyday ratepayers could unknowingly foot the bill for Silicon Valley’s power-hungry expansion.

Tech Titans Want a Nuclear Revival

At CERAWeek, Google, Amazon, and Meta pledged to triple global nuclear energy capacity by 2050 to sustain their growing energy needs. With AI and cloud computing driving explosive demand for electricity, these companies see nuclear as the only scalable, reliable solution to keep their operations running while reducing carbon footprints.

Amazon is already investing in small modular reactors (SMRs), while Google has signed a deal with nuclear startup Kairos Power. Meta has been actively scouting nuclear projects in the U.S. The push for nuclear is a sign that the energy crisis is now a tech problem—and that Big Tech is betting on nuclear power as its long-term solution.

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Conversation Starters

• IBD – Nuclear Stocks Surge as Talen Energy Lands Bullish Rating – Wall Street is taking nuclear seriously again, and Talen Energy (TLN) just got a major vote of confidence.
  

• Reuters – AI and Wildfires Are Shaking Up the Reliability of Utility Bonds – AI-driven energy demand and wildfire liabilities are making utility bonds riskier than ever.
  

• NYT – ‘The Electric State’ Review: A 1990s Robot Apocalypse – A sci-fi epic that asks: do we even need AI to destroy faith in humanity?

Good Bet, Bad Bet

Good Bet: Talen Energy (TLN)
Talen Energy surged 12.8% after Morgan Stanley gave it an overweight rating, citing strong nuclear assets and new data center contracts. With nuclear demand rising, Talen is well-positioned to profit from Big Tech’s growing energy needs.

Bad Bet: Counting Out Nuclear (Again)
Wall Street has underestimated nuclear before, and it cost them. In the early 2000s, analysts dismissed nuclear as “too slow and expensive.” Now, with tech giants scrambling for power, the nuclear sector is on the cusp of a major resurgence—and those who stay on the sidelines will miss the upside.

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