Industrial policy just collided with the capital stack. Treasury narrowed the lane for clean energy tax credits under new FEOC guidance. TVA’s reshaped board voted to keep coal units online in the name of reliability. And Duke rolled out a $103 billion five-year spending plan as AEP made clear that hyperscale load is now core to earnings, not a side note. This week’s throughline is simple: supply chains, reserve margins, and capital formation are driving the grid now — not press releases.

The Treasury Department released long-awaited guidance clarifying how projects qualify for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits under Foreign Entity of Concern (FEOC) restrictions. The new rules center on a “material assistance cost ratio” test that determines whether a project relies too heavily on components, subcomponents, or critical minerals sourced from China or other designated foreign adversaries. Under the guidance:

Treasury’s clarification provides more definitional precision around ownership structures and contractual relationships, but it also reinforces that eligibility will be scrutinized across the full supply chain — not just at the project site.

The result is a narrower, more compliance-heavy pathway for developers who rely on globally integrated manufacturing networks. Domestic sourcing and traceability now directly affect the economics of new generation and storage projects.

Why It Matters - Billions in tax credits now hinge on how developers source materials and structure supply chains. That makes compliance strategy just as important as engineering in determining what actually gets built.

Grid Take - Industrial policy is now embedded in the capital stack. If you want domestic supply chains, you’re going to get higher upfront costs — the question is whether policymakers are prepared for that tradeoff when capacity tightens.

The Tennessee Valley Authority’s newly reconstituted board voted to keep certain coal-fired units operating rather than proceed with previously scheduled retirements. The decision follows mounting demand growth across TVA’s service territory and ongoing national debates about grid reliability.

Coal’s national generation share has fallen from roughly 50% in 2000 to about 17% in 2025, according to EIA data. Yet TVA leadership signaled that existing dispatchable capacity remains strategically important amid tightening reserve margins and accelerating industrial load growth.

The vote reflects a broader shift inside public power entities: even as long-term decarbonization goals remain on paper, near-term reliability and load obligations are driving decisions about plant life extensions and resource adequacy.

TVA framed the move as a reliability and cost-stability decision, particularly given infrastructure constraints and lead times for new replacement capacity.

Why It Matters - TVA is signaling that reliability and load growth are outweighing retirement schedules, at least in the near term. Coal’s share of U.S. generation may be down to roughly 17%, but in tight systems it still counts.

Grid Take - Markets retire plants when they’re uneconomic; politics keeps them when the system feels thin. If reserve margins are shrinking, policymakers will choose electrons over ideology every time.

Duke Energy announced what it describes as the largest regulated capital plan in U.S. utility history — a $103 billion investment program over five years. The plan spans generation additions, grid modernization, transmission expansion, and system hardening.

At the same time, American Electric Power emphasized in earnings discussions that large-load customers, particularly data centers, are reshaping its load forecast and capital trajectory. AEP pointed to strong pipeline growth and reiterated that hyperscale demand is becoming embedded in long-term planning assumptions.

Key themes across both utilities:

Duke’s plan reflects both traditional infrastructure replacement and new build to accommodate demand growth. AEP’s commentary reinforces that utilities are preparing for sustained load increases — not a temporary spike.

Why It Matters - Duke’s $103 billion five-year plan and AEP’s earnings emphasis on large-load customers confirm what regulators already know: data centers are now embedded in utility capital forecasts. Load growth isn’t theoretical — it’s showing up in rate cases and balance sheets.

Grid Take - When regulated utilities see durable demand, they build. The real question isn’t whether capital will flow — it’s whether permitting, interconnection, and politics will let supply keep pace fast enough to prevent price spikes.

Upgrade to Grid Brief Premium to get extra deep dives into energy issues all over the world.

If your entire daily residential electricity allocation could only power a 1,000-watt window AC unit, how long would it run? In India: 44 minutes. Sri Lanka: 39. Pakistan: 37. In Nigeria, just 13 minutes. In Chad, one. That’s not about affordability. That’s about sheer availability. The chart translates abstract kilowatt-hours into something painfully tangible: cooling time. In much of the world, modern comfort is measured in minutes, not hours.

Grid Take - Energy poverty isn’t solved with better slogans. It’s solved with scale. Reliable generation, dense grids, firm power, and abundant supply. Every serious development story in the last century runs through cheap, dependable electricity. If you want fewer one-minute countries, you need more megawatts, not more process.

Four minutes of air conditioning. One minute.

Energy poverty isn’t theoretical. It’s thermodynamic.

Every conversation about decarbonization, data centers, FEOC ratios, or coal retirements sits on top of this fact: abundant electricity is civilization.

We rely on word of mouth to grow. If you're enjoying this, don't forget to forward Grid Brief to your friends and ask them to subscribe!