This week’s theme is “who builds, who pays, who controls.” The White House wants hyperscalers to secure their own megawatts, FERC is sorting the boundary between transmission and retail, and states are quietly deciding who eats the bill. Meanwhile, utilities are entering a once-in-a-generation buildout—and some are leaning hard on gas while nuclear gathers momentum. Markets can sort a lot, but only if regulators let price signals do their job.

The Trump energy pivot meets the utility business model

The administration is pushing two ideas at once: (1) let data centers co-locate and procure/produce their own power (microgrids, private wires, onsite generation), and (2) use emergency orders to keep dispatchable plants online. Utilities like the load growth but bristle at losing primacy over big customers and at policy whiplash that makes 60-year assets a political coin toss. Fair take from our lens: co-location is a legitimate market experiment that can lower costs if large loads shoulder their interconnection and reliability costs—and don’t socialize risk. Emergency orders should be a bridge, not a plan. The fastest way out of the crunch is permitting reform for wires and steel, technology-neutral resource adequacy, and clear cost-causation so residential ratepayers aren’t the involuntary insurer of last resort.

Why it matters: If DOE/FERC set a clean lane for large-load interconnections—and require genuine curtailability and cost-causation—markets can absorb AI without blowing up bills. If not, expect state-federal turf wars and stranded-cost litigation instead of new electrons.

AEP joins the “super-cycle”

American Electric Power just took its five-year capex plan up 33% to $72B, leaning into 765-kV transmission in Texas and PJM. They’re guiding 7–9% EPS CAGR, and they see 65 GW of peak by 2030—+76% vs. their last summer peak—thanks to signed data-center and other large-load agreements (~28 GW in hand). Translation: wires and firm capacity are the investment thesis of the decade. The free-market read: if you want private capital to keep sprinting, give them siting certainty, faster interconnects, and stable cost recovery. Starve them of any one of those and capex will detour to friendlier ZIP codes.

Entergy’s playbook: gas first, deals in hand, watch nuclear

The U.S. just quietly crossed a milestone: it can now manufacture every major solar component domestically. With Corning’s new Michigan ingot and wafer plant online, SEIA says the full solar supply chain—from silicon to module—is now onshore. Capacity has exploded: modules up 37% since last year, cells tripled, inverters up 50%, and battery cell production closing in on 100 GWh. In less than two years, America has gone from lagging to leading in solar hardware. The next challenge: staying competitive. Labor, energy, and compliance costs will test whether “Made in America” can mean both secure and affordable as the Inflation Reduction Act’s manufacturing incentives phase toward real market economics.

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Conversation Starters

• Apollo Academy: Electricity prices have grown in line with overall inflation.
  Over the past decade, electricity prices have increased almost exactly as fast as the rest of the Consumer Price Index.
  Why read: It’s a reality check against political rhetoric—electricity isn’t the inflation villain it’s made out to be. The real pressure comes from infrastructure costs and policy delays, not runaway pricing.

• NYT: How Britain lined up capital for Sizewell
  The U.K. finally broke ground by de-risking finance and politics.
  Why read: America’s nuclear revival will depend on the same blend of risk-transfer, long-term contracts, and public credibility—not just glossy announcements.

• FT: Australia’s “Solar Sharer” plan—free daytime power windows.
  Canberra will require retailers to offer several hours of free daytime electricity to soak up excess rooftop solar generation.
  Why read: It’s a real-time test of using price signals instead of subsidies or curtailment. Expect U.S. utilities to test versions of this—minus the word free.

Over the past decade, U.S. electricity prices have moved almost lockstep with overall inflation. The recent bump reflects infrastructure and fuel costs more than runaway pricing—context worth remembering next time “energy inflation” hits the headlines.

Good Bet: High-voltage transmission (765-kV and HVDC) with real permitting tailwinds. AEP’s posture isn’t unique—capital is lining up where siting is most tractable. If Congress or states grease the skids on corridors and cost allocation, these assets print durable returns and unlock gigawatts of otherwise-stranded generation.

Bad Bet: Assuming emergency orders are a standing resource. 202(c) keeps lights on in a pinch; it can’t substitute for capacity markets, long-term contracts, or timely interconnections. Building a business case around perpetual “emergency” is how you wind up with political risk, not revenue.

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